Base-case output from the DCF tab.
Flagship Finance Case
Dynamic DCF Valuation Model
This is the first proof-layer artifact in the portfolio: a public-company valuation workbook designed to make operating assumptions, discount-rate logic, integrity checks, and source quality visible in one place. The current showcase uses Apple as the live example.
- Published MVP
- Workbook-driven
- Executive-readable
Valuation Snapshot
What the current model says.
The showcase workbook is live enough to inspect. These numbers are not presented as a stock call by themselves; they are presented as proof that the model structure, assumptions, and checks can be followed in public.
Workbook market reference at the time of refresh.
The gap between intrinsic value and market price in the selected case.
Built from risk-free rate, beta, ERP, and capital structure.
Checks pass except the cost-of-debt fallback note in the audit layer.
Project Purpose
The project the workbook is meant to prove.
I built this model to show that I can move from a messy public-company valuation question to a structured workbook with clear inputs, traceable outputs, and explicit control points. The point was not only to calculate a price target. The point was to build a finance artifact that can be inspected, challenged, and improved.
For the portfolio, this page becomes the public-facing explanation layer. The workbook does the analytical heavy lifting, and this page turns that work into something a hiring manager, operator, or finance-minded reviewer can understand without opening Excel first.
What I Built
Finance logic with operational discipline.
- A dynamic DCF output tab that surfaces enterprise value, equity value, and implied share price.
- Dedicated input controls for pricing, tax, debt, beta, terminal growth, and working-capital assumptions.
- A WACC build that keeps the cost-of-capital logic visible instead of burying it in one cell.
- Workbook checks and source auditing so the model signals where a fallback or review is still needed.
- A reusable template structure that can support additional public-company valuation cases over time.
Companion Memo
The reasoning behind the workbook.
The model is the artifact, but the memo is what explains how I think about it: why I built it, how the scenarios were framed, and where I see the boundaries between a solid base-case tool and a fully mature valuation system.
Thesis Framing
Why this model mattered to build.
A major part of my MBA experience has been learning valuation from the perspective of actionable finance: not just how formulas work, but how they support real decisions. My view is that firms gain the most strategic advantage when quantitative conclusions and experienced business judgment are used together. The math gives structure. The business lens gives meaning.
As my MBA has moved toward its conclusion, I wanted to understand the full mixture required to build the analytical foundation for enterprise valuation, then apply that knowledge in a way that could eventually support merger-and-acquisition style thinking. This workbook was part work study, part proof of discipline, and part attempt to build a reusable finance asset from first principles.
Assumption Logic
Why the bear, base, and bull cases are intentionally restrained.
The model uses three scenario paths: Bear, Base, and Bull. The Bear case assumes 3% revenue growth, which I anchored to a long-run inflation-like baseline. If a company does not materially expand, a reasonable floor is that revenue may still track the general price level over time.
The Base case assumes 8% growth. My reasoning there is intentionally conservative: roughly five points above inflation, with enough room for positive operating performance without forcing heroic execution assumptions. The Bull case moves to 13%, which is still below the more aggressive 15% to 20% range that bullish models often drift toward. I wanted the optimistic case to remain ambitious without becoming careless.
Model Boundaries
Where the workbook stands today, and what it is meant to become.
This is not a comprehensive end-state valuation platform. It does not yet pull every 10-K line item in a way that automatically produces the broader ratio layer I would want for a full analytical stack, including deeper EBIT, PBT, PAT, quick, and liquidity comparisons. What it does do well is stand on its own as a conservative base-case DCF that can be incorporated into larger frameworks later.
I built manual overrides into the workbook because valuation needs to adapt to the specific cost structures and operating realities of different industries. That flexibility matters. At the same time, I designed the model to be cautious rather than speculative, which is why warning signals appear when values push outside safer ranges. The main conclusion I take from the project is that valuation only becomes useful when ratios, assumptions, controls, and judgment are made to work together clearly enough for someone else to inspect the logic.
Model Preview
The workbook, surfaced on the page.
This is the MVP proof layer: enough of the model is visible here to communicate structure, assumptions, and quality controls, while the workbook remains available as the full artifact.
Valuation Summary
| PV of forecast FCFs | $645.85B |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value | $1.91T |
| Enterprise value | $2.55T |
| Net debt / (cash) | $54.74B |
| Equity value | $2.61T |
| Diluted shares | 15.00B |
Market Bridge
| Implied share price | $173.76 |
|---|---|
| Current share price | $270.71 |
| Implied upside / downside | -35.8% |
| Current market cap | $4.00T |
| Base fiscal year | 2025 |
| Revenue source status | OK |
Key Controls
| Equity risk premium | 5.0% |
|---|---|
| NWC assumption | 3.0% of change in revenue |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% |
| Terminal timing | Year-End |
| NWC forecast method | Manual % of revenue change |
| Selected case | Base |
WACC Build
| Risk-free rate | 4.354% |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.11 |
| Cost of equity | 9.904% |
| Equity weight | 97.78% |
| Debt weight | 2.22% |
| WACC | 9.684% |
Model Checks
| Visible workbook errors | PASS |
|---|---|
| Scenario selector valid | PASS |
| Current share price available | PASS |
| Diluted shares available | PASS |
| WACC positive | PASS |
| WACC > terminal growth | PASS |
Audit Layer
| Income statement FY | PASS |
|---|---|
| Balance sheet FY | PASS |
| Cash flow FY | PASS |
| Beta source | PASS |
| 10Y treasury source | PASS |
| Cost of debt source | WARN / fallback |
Audit note:
The only current issue is the cost-of-debt source warning. The workbook still completes, but the
source audit correctly flags that the debt-cost assumption should be reviewed instead of treated as invisible.
Workbook Architecture
How the workbook is organized.
The workbook is structured so a reviewer can move from the headline output to the assumptions, the cost of capital, the source data, and the integrity checks without getting lost.
Workbook orientation, usage steps, and tab map.
Main valuation output with implied share price, enterprise value, and market bridge.
Forecast controls, manual overrides, terminal logic, and working-capital assumptions.
Risk-free rate, beta, ERP, capital structure, and discount-rate build.
Support schedule for operating working-capital logic.
Historical balance sheet, income statement, and cash-flow data.
Anchoring history used to support projections.
Integrity tests for key inputs, relationships, and output sanity.
Refresh diagnostics and visibility into where key inputs came from.
Live pulls for market data, treasury rates, tax rate, shares, and related fields.
Workbook plumbing for the live query layer.
What Comes Next
The next layer is the written investment narrative.
This MVP establishes the structure: a real workbook, a public proof page, and enough explanation to make the artifact legible. The next iteration can deepen the memo itself with thesis framing, assumption rationale, scenario reasoning, and what would change the conclusion.